年内最后一期LPR维持不变 明年仍存下行空间

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment amid low bank net interest margins and historical low lending rates [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR has not changed since May, when it was adjusted down by 0.1 percentage points following a cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [2]. - The stability of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has provided a consistent pricing anchor for the LPR [1]. - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in November was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 3 basis points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current economic environment, characterized by resilient growth despite external pressures, has reduced the urgency for further LPR reductions [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [2]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026, possibly before the Spring Festival, which could lead to a decrease in both LPR terms [3]. - If deposit rates and policy rates decline further, the LPR may see a slight decrease, with a greater emphasis on structural monetary policy tools [3].