【环球财经】美国关税政策导致德国前三季度对美出口大幅下降

Core Insights - The report from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research indicates that U.S. tariff policies are causing a significant decline in German exports to the U.S. before the third quarter of 2025, putting immense pressure on transatlantic trade [1][2] Group 1: Export Decline - German exports to the U.S. are projected to decrease by an average of 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, contrasting with an average growth of nearly 5% from 2016 to 2024 during the same period [1] - The automotive, machinery, and chemical sectors, which account for over 40% of Germany's total exports to the U.S., are particularly hard hit, contributing to a decline of more than 5.2 percentage points in overall exports [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Impacts - The automotive sector experienced a significant drop of 14% in exports to the U.S., largely attributed to relatively high tariff burdens prior to the expected tariff agreement in August 2025 [1] - Machinery exports to the U.S. fell by 9.5%, influenced by a tariff rate as high as 50% on steel, aluminum, and related products [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the current export levels have reverted to those seen in 2022 and even early 2019, indicating a potential "new normal" for German exports to the U.S. due to the unlikely restoration of previous tariff levels in the short term [2]