债市日报：12月22日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed weakness on December 22, with long-term bonds experiencing a decline while short-term bonds remained stable. The central bank is expected to potentially implement a new round of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026, with concerns about structural supply and demand for long-term bonds persisting [1][5]. Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.28% to 111.98, the 10-year down 0.09% to 107.98, the 5-year down 0.06% to 105.86, and the 2-year down 0.02% to 102.464 [2]. - The yield on the 30-year government bond rose by 1.7 basis points to 2.244%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 1.7 basis points to 1.909% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.76 basis points to 3.483% and the 10-year yield up by 2.74 basis points to 4.147% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 5.5 basis points to 3.610%, and the 10-year German bond yield increased by 4.6 basis points to 2.894% [3]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 673 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 636 billion yuan for the day [4]. - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate declining to 1.272%, the lowest since August 2023, while the 14-day and 1-month rates increased [4]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the bond market is becoming desensitized to fundamentals, with increased zero-sum competition under low interest rates. They suggest focusing on short-term credit bonds and 5-7 year government bonds [5]. - CITIC Securities highlighted increased volatility in long and ultra-long bond yields due to pressure on bank liabilities, suggesting that long-term bonds still hold value for allocation despite current market conditions [5][6].