Reasons to Hold MSTR Stock Despite a 50% Decline in 3 Months

Core Insights - Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has experienced a 49.7% decline in shares over the past three months, significantly underperforming the Zacks Finance sector's growth of 1.4% and the Zacks Financial-Miscellaneous Services industry's decline of 12.9% [1] Group 1: Performance and Market Position - The underperformance of MSTR is linked to Bitcoin price volatility, which closely ties earnings to Bitcoin movements, and a compression in the mNAV multiple [2] - MSTR's stock has lagged behind competitors such as CleanSpark (CLSK), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and MARA Holdings (MARA), which fell 13.5%, 15%, and 42.5% respectively during the same period [2] - MSTR holds approximately 671,268 BTC, establishing Bitcoin as its primary reserve asset, which provides a structural advantage over competitors [7][8] Group 2: Financial Strategy and Capital Structure - MSTR has raised about $6.7 billion through preferred securities, enhancing its capital flexibility and reducing reliance on convertible debt [11] - The company’s innovative digital credit and preferred securities platform has broadened funding options, with STRC becoming the largest U.S. IPO of 2025 [11] - MSTR's shares are trading at a price-to-book value of 0.91X, significantly lower than the industry average of 3.18X, indicating potential undervaluation [13] Group 3: Earnings and Valuation Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MSTR's 2025 earnings is $78.04 per share, with a projected decrease to $51.60 per share in 2026, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 33.88% [14][15] - MSTR's stock is currently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [16] Group 4: Investment Recommendation - Despite the recent share price decline, MSTR retains long-term appeal due to its substantial Bitcoin holdings, flexible capital structure, and discounted valuation [19] - The combination of strong long-term fundamentals and short-term uncertainties suggests that maintaining a hold position is prudent for investors [19]