【债市观察】央行重启14天期逆回购释放跨年流动性 利率短端走强超长端显配置价值

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has resumed 14-day reverse repos to release year-end liquidity, maintaining stability in the money market, while short-term interest rates strengthen under expectations of loose monetary policy [1] Market Overview - The bond market saw fluctuations with the yield curve steepening, as the 10-year government bond yield decreased by nearly 1 basis point (BP) and the 30-year yield fell by over 2 BP during the week [1] - The yields for various maturities changed as follows: 1-year (-3.32 BP), 2-year (-1.99 BP), 3-year (-2.2 BP), 5-year (-2.58 BP), 7-year (-1.52 BP), 10-year (-0.88 BP), and 30-year (-2.35 BP) [2][3] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a recovery mid-week after initial declines, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to 1.836% [2] - The 30-year bond contract saw a slight increase of 0.02% over the week, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.14% each [5] Issuance in Primary Market - A total of 35 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 376.13 billion yuan, including 4 government bonds worth 296.04 billion yuan [7] - For the upcoming week, 8 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 150.04 billion yuan, with 2 government bonds worth 148 billion yuan [7] International Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell overall, with the 10-year yield down by 3 BP to 4.16% and the 2-year yield down by 4 BP to 3.48% [8] - In Japan, the central bank raised interest rates to 0.75%, leading to a sell-off in government bonds, with the 10-year yield reaching its highest level since 1999 at 2.023% [8] Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7%, lower than expected, which has increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [11] Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the bond market is currently in a consolidation phase, with expectations of continued monetary easing and potential trading opportunities emerging in the first quarter of the following year [15] - The market is characterized by high volatility, driven by differing behaviors of institutional investors and trading desks, with ongoing concerns about supply pressures and regulatory changes [16]