一周流动性观察 | 央行重启14天逆回购缓和市场担忧 25日起7天资金波动或显著加大

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 673 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 636 billion yuan due to 1,309 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the week of December 15-19, the central bank's net withdrawal from 7-day and 14-day reverse repos totaled 110 billion yuan, while it conducted a 6-month reverse repo operation of 6,000 billion yuan, exceeding the planned amount by 2,000 billion yuan, indicating a supportive liquidity environment [1] - The PBOC's actions on December 18-19 through 14-day reverse repos aimed to ease market concerns about year-end liquidity, contributing to expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week (December 22-26) will see a decrease in the 7-day reverse repo maturity scale to 4,575 billion yuan, with government bond net payments expected to rise to 3,666 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday and Thursday [2] - The liquidity in the banking system is expected to remain ample, with the potential for continued easing, particularly if the average DR001 for December can drop below 1.3%, indicating the central bank's intent for substantial easing [2] - Analysts suggest that the disturbances in the funding market are primarily due to year-end pressures and government bond payments, with expectations that the MLF's regular rollover on December 25 may alleviate some of the payment pressures [2] Group 3 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years at 3.5%, unchanged for the seventh consecutive month, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate domestic financing demand [3] - The current low inflation levels provide sufficient room for monetary policy to adopt a moderately accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent rate adjustments [3] Group 4 - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is considered low, as recent statements from the central bank have not indicated a strong signal for broad monetary easing, focusing instead on maintaining low financing costs [4] - Historically, the central bank is less likely to cut rates at year-end, with more frequent cuts occurring in the first quarter of the following year, as policymakers prefer to create a positive outlook at the start of the new year [4] - Current pressures on banks' liabilities and rising deposit rates suggest that the probability of a rate cut is low, despite indications of easing in short-term interest rates [4]