一切皆涨，世界一次集体犹豫

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a cautious optimism in the market, with a focus on year-end rebounds rather than long-term bullishness [1] - The S&P 500 index surpassed 6800 points, the Nasdaq broke through the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin stabilized above $85,000, indicating a potential theme of "betting on year-end rebounds" [1] - Investors are optimistic as the market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, creating an environment of hope and probability betting [1] Group 2 - The global market is characterized by a "hedging coexistence" state, where stock markets rise, the dollar remains stable, gold holds its ground, and bond yields are high, reflecting a lack of belief in a single narrative [1] - The true "watershed" for the market is expected in January, marking a period of "repricing" rather than a specific point [2] - In China, if policy signals in January are not clear enough, patient capital will likely continue to wait and observe [3] - In the U.S., if the consensus shifts to "no rate cuts in January," valuations will need to be reassessed [4] - The current market environment is not suitable for aggressive buying but also not conducive to simple short-selling, with significant decisions expected in January [5]