Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-22 18:17Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market is experiencing a price decline, with major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye facing significant challenges, indicating a broader issue within the industry [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The price of Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, while Wuliangye has seen its price fall to 850 yuan per bottle, creating a notable price inversion compared to its factory price of 1019 yuan [1] - Major liquor companies have initiated a price protection strategy, which has led to a temporary price recovery for Moutai, with original box prices rising to 1600 yuan per bottle and scattered bottle prices reaching 1580 yuan [1] - Despite these short-term adjustments, the underlying issues of weak terminal sales and high channel inventory remain unresolved [1] Group 2: Structural Issues in the Industry - The liquor industry's channel system suffers from structural defects, characterized by a traditional pyramid sales model that leads to profit erosion at each level of distribution [2] - There is a prevalent "prisoner's dilemma" in the industry, where companies are reluctant to control production due to fears of losing market share, resulting in chaotic production expansion that negatively impacts pricing [2] - Short-term profit maximization pressures from public company status and local government expectations exacerbate the industry's focus on immediate results rather than sustainable growth [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - Companies need to shift their focus from short-term revenue goals to long-term stable growth, ensuring that management changes do not alter this objective [3] - There is a need to reassess brand positioning and target consumer demographics, adapting to the shift from business dining to broader consumer markets and younger demographics [3] - A revolutionary change in the channel system is necessary, moving away from the traditional pyramid structure to empower retailers and enhance consumer experiences, facilitating a transition from "channel stockpiling" to "terminal sales" [3] - The current price adjustments represent both a cyclical challenge and an opportunity for the industry to transform its development model towards high-quality growth [3]