国际货币体系加速向多极化裂变

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar's dominance in the international monetary system, highlighting a shift towards a multipolar currency landscape driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [4][5][10]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since 1973, while gold prices surged nearly 68% during the same period [4][7]. - The "sacred myth" of the dollar as a safe asset has been shattered, as evidenced by simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar itself amid rising global trade tensions and the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" [6][8]. - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt have intensified, with the federal debt exceeding $38 trillion, leading to rising interest payments and a diminishing fiscal discipline [7][8]. Group 2: De-dollarization Trends - The global movement towards "de-dollarization" has shifted from isolated attempts to a coordinated effort, particularly in trade settlements, as countries seek to reduce reliance on the dollar [8][9]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves dropped from 57.79% at the end of Q1 2025 to 56.32% by the end of Q2 2025, marking a 30-year low [8][9]. - Gold has emerged as a preferred asset in the context of de-dollarization, with its share in global reserves rising to 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro [9]. Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The decline of the dollar's dominance is expected to lead to a more diversified international monetary system, although this transition will be gradual and complex [10][11]. - The euro and the renminbi are identified as the most competitive alternative currencies to the dollar, but they also face significant challenges [11]. - The future international monetary system is likely to evolve into a structure where multiple currencies share the functions previously held by the dollar, reducing reliance on a single currency anchor [11].