明年一季度地方计划发债超万亿元 积极财政政策发力

Core Viewpoint - Local governments are set to issue over 1 trillion yuan in bonds in early 2024 to support major project construction, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy and addressing local government debt risks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Plans - At least 14 provinces and cities have announced plans to issue local government bonds in early 2024, with a cumulative issuance scale nearing 1.2 trillion yuan [1][2]. - Jiangsu province plans to issue a total of 1,056 billion yuan in government bonds in the first quarter, including 700 billion yuan in new bonds and 356 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2]. - The actual bond issuance scale in the first quarter is expected to exceed the currently disclosed 1.2 trillion yuan as more provinces announce their plans [5]. Group 2: Debt Management and Policy - The National People's Congress requires approval for new local government debt limits each March, which typically leads to concentrated bond issuance in the second half of the year [2]. - The State Council has been authorized to advance the issuance limits for the following year, allowing local governments to issue bonds earlier in the year [2][3]. - The 2026 debt limit for local governments is expected to be set at 3.12 trillion yuan, adhering to a 60% cap on early issuance based on the previous year's limits [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Investment - The central government has emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 to stabilize investment and support economic growth [4]. - The early issuance of bonds is seen as a way to kickstart major projects, which is crucial for the economic foundation in the new five-year plan [4]. - The anticipated increase in bond issuance is expected to enhance government investment efficiency and stimulate social investment, significantly impacting economic growth [6]. Group 4: Refinancing and Debt Resolution - Refinancing bonds are primarily aimed at repaying old debts, with a significant portion of the funds used for this purpose [6]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 2 trillion yuan in refinancing bonds in 2026 to address existing hidden debts and alleviate local government debt risks [6]. - The strategy of "exchanging time for space" will continue, with a focus on efficient fund allocation to support local governments [6]. Group 5: Special Bond Management - The management of special bonds will be optimized to improve their usage efficiency, with pilot programs allowing local governments more flexibility in project approval [7][8]. - The Ministry of Finance will guide local governments in accelerating project preparations and enhancing project quality, particularly in non-pilot areas [8].