【环时深度】2025，日本加速右倾的一年

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing a significant political shift towards the right, driven by social and economic anxieties, as evidenced by the recent elections and the rise of extreme right parties [3][4][5]. Political Developments - The 2025 summer elections marked a turning point, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its ally Komeito suffering losses, while the extreme right party gained 14 seats, indicating a broader societal shift to the right [3][4]. - The election results reflect Japan's susceptibility to global political trends, with analysts suggesting that mainstream parties may adopt more exclusionary policies to compete for votes [3][4]. - The appointment of Sanae Takaichi as Prime Minister represents a strategic move by the LDP to regain conservative voters, aligning with a more hardline nationalist agenda [4][5]. Economic Context - Japan's defense budget is set to reach a historical peak of approximately 11 trillion yen for the 2025 fiscal year, marking a continuous increase for 14 years [6][7]. - The government is focusing on enhancing offensive military capabilities, including the establishment of a joint operations command and the reorganization of military units [7]. - Economic policies under Takaichi aim to balance public welfare and defense spending, but face criticism for being outdated and potentially harmful in the context of rising inflation and national debt [11]. Social Dynamics - Rising social discontent, characterized by stagnant wages and high inflation, has fueled a populist sentiment that extreme right parties are capitalizing on [5][9]. - The political climate is marked by increasing polarization, which may hinder Japan's ability to address structural challenges such as an aging population [9][10]. International Relations - Japan's military expansion and rightward shift have raised concerns among neighboring countries, with potential implications for regional security dynamics [6][8]. - The government's discussions around nuclear policy and military capabilities have sparked domestic and international debates, reflecting a departure from Japan's post-war pacifism [8][10].