国投证券：预计2026年上市银行业绩增速将小幅回升 国内银行价值重估未结束

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotou Securities indicates that the performance growth of listed banks is expected to slightly rebound by 2026, with a focus on structural improvements in the banking sector as credit growth slows down [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Outlook - The growth rate of listed banks' performance is projected to see a slight recovery by 2026 [2]. - The central bank is downplaying the focus on quantitative targets, leading to a continuation of slowing credit growth, while financial investment trends are expected to outperform credit [2]. - Regions that can sustain leverage and banks that can steadily increase their credit share will benefit more in this environment [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Earnings - The yield on the asset side is expected to continue declining, but the rate of decline will gradually slow down [2]. - The positive effect of deposit repricing on liability costs in 2026 may outweigh the negative impact of declining asset yields, providing better support for net interest margins [2]. - The quality of corporate credit assets is expected to improve, with slight fluctuations in real estate credit risk, but the overall impact on bank asset quality is considered minimal [2]. Group 3: Market Valuation - The perception that bank stocks are defensive is challenged, as the potential for value re-evaluation due to valuation discrepancies is significant [3]. - Domestic banks are still undervalued compared to global counterparts, and with low institutional holdings, the path for bank valuation to rise is far from complete [3]. - It is anticipated that the valuation of Hong Kong bank stocks will continue to converge towards that of A-share bank stocks [3].