供应宽松 棕榈油或维持低位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market has experienced a downward trend for over two months since peaking in early October, with two short-term rebounds that failed to reverse the overall decline [1] Group 1: Production and Seasonal Trends - Malaysia's palm oil production has shown significant seasonal characteristics, with the dry season typically leading to higher production and the rainy season resulting in lower output [2] - This year, the dry season has been extended, with palm oil production in Malaysia reaching 2.04 million tons in October, an 11% month-on-month increase and a 14% year-on-year increase [2] - By November, production began to decline to 1.935 million tons, a 5.3% decrease month-on-month, but still a 19.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a delay in the seasonal reduction period by about one month compared to normal years [2] - As a result of the extended production cycle, palm oil inventories in Malaysia reached 2.835 million tons by the end of November, marking a 54.5% increase from 1.835 million tons year-on-year, the highest level since March 2019 [2] Group 2: Price Movements and Market Influences - A rebound in palm oil prices occurred from late November to early December due to heavy rainfall caused by the La Niña phenomenon, which initially affected the Central and Southern Peninsula and the Philippines before moving southward [4] - However, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) indicated that the recent floods are unlikely to significantly impact overall production, as the effects are localized and the main production areas have not experienced substantial rainfall [4] - The U.S. biodiesel policy has faced delays, with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announcing that the final decision on the 2026 biodiesel blending targets will not be made until the first quarter of next year, leading to market disappointment and contributing to the decline in the oilseed sector [5] - Following a two-month downward trend, palm oil prices have returned to near their lowest levels of the year, with expectations of continued weak fluctuations until the U.S. biodiesel policy is finalized [5]