MINT·2025-12-22 23:19Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions between China and Japan are expected to negatively impact Chinese airlines, complicating their efforts to achieve profitability for the first time in six years during a seasonally weak period [1]. Industry Impact - Earnings for Chinese airlines are projected to be adversely affected, with analysts predicting continued pressure through early 2026 [2]. - The "Big Three" Chinese airlines have incurred combined losses of 206.4 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024, primarily due to the pandemic and increasing domestic competition [4]. - Flight restrictions to Japan are anticipated to further squeeze earnings during an already fragile period, as demand typically declines after the National Day holidays in October [5]. Company-Specific Insights - China Eastern Airlines, being the largest operator of flights between China and Japan, is more vulnerable to demand fluctuations compared to China Southern Airlines and Air China [3]. - Smaller airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, while profitable, are also at risk due to the reduced demand for flights to Japan [3]. Mitigation Strategies - Chinese airlines are adapting by reallocating spare capacity to other destinations such as Thailand and South Korea, and relaxed visa policies for Chinese travelers to Russia present new opportunities [6]. - Scheduled flights to Japan from China were reduced by nearly 50% in December, with an average reduction of 38% expected through the end of March [7]. Revenue Considerations - Japan has historically been the most profitable route for Chinese airlines in terms of passenger yield, which is under pressure this year [8]. - The shift in capacity to other routes may further impact passenger yields, although the effects may not be significant in the fourth quarter but could manifest in the first quarter [9]. Long-Term Outlook - There are signs of optimism in long-term fundamentals, as a stronger yuan reduces jet fuel costs, which have been declining [9]. - Rising inbound travel is identified as a key growth driver for Chinese airlines, allowing for tiered pricing strategies that cater to international passengers [10]. - A sustained recovery in business travel is expected to enhance airlines' pricing power [11].