油价再收长阳，原油市场出现局部冷热不均的少见分化局面

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen significantly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Venezuela's oil exports and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a cumulative increase of $3 over four trading days [4][16]. Oil Market Dynamics - The U.S. has seized two oil tankers transporting Venezuelan oil, increasing the risk of export interruptions, which could result in a loss of approximately 500,000 barrels per day from the supply side [4][16]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the U.S. oil market remains relatively unaffected, with WTI prices rebounding but showing little change in monthly differentials [4][16]. - Brent crude prices have reacted more significantly to the geopolitical events, indicating a disruption in global supply chains [5][17]. Price Movements - WTI crude oil futures closed at $58.01, up $1.49 (2.64%), while Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.58, up $1.53 (2.55%) [6][18]. - The INE crude oil futures also saw an increase, closing at 441.30 yuan, up 2.01% [6][18]. Geopolitical Factors - Israeli officials are preparing to report to Trump about potential military actions against Iran, citing concerns over Iran's missile program and nuclear facilities [19]. - Recent discussions among U.S. and European officials regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not improved the prospects for peace, leading to increased market uncertainty [20]. Supply and Pricing Trends - Russian oil prices have significantly decreased, with Urals crude now priced around $34 per barrel, reflecting the impact of sanctions and market dynamics [5][17]. - The current oil market is characterized by a complex situation of oversupply, but U.S. actions against Venezuelan exports may alleviate some of this pressure [17].