双重支撑，铂、钯期价涨停！警惕短线回调

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium futures have surged, with platinum reaching 568.45 CNY per gram (up 6.99%) and palladium at 508.45 CNY per gram (up 7%), while spot platinum has surpassed 2000 USD per ounce for the first time since 2008 [2][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - Platinum futures for the main contract (2606) closed at 568.45 CNY per gram, marking a 6.99% increase [2][10]. - Palladium futures for the main contract (2606) closed at 508.45 CNY per gram, reflecting a 7% increase [2][10]. - Spot platinum prices exceeded 2000 USD per ounce, a significant milestone since 2008 [2][10]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The continuous rise in platinum and palladium prices is supported by macroeconomic liquidity easing and tightening supply in the spot market [5][13]. - Analysts highlight that the divergence in U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties are key factors driving prices upward [5][13]. - The potential escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe is injecting risk premiums into the market, enhancing the investment value of platinum group metals [5][13]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data, including a rise in unemployment to 4.6% (the highest since 2021) and a slowdown in inflation (core CPI at 2.6%), suggests a weakening labor market and may support further easing measures from the Federal Reserve [6][14]. - The labor market's structural issues are evident, with significant disparities between high-tech sectors and traditional industries, contributing to rising unemployment and economic challenges [6][14]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The platinum market has been in a state of supply-demand balance for three consecutive years, with limited growth in mining capacity and production disruptions in some regions [7][15]. - Despite the structural impact of electric vehicles on traditional automotive catalysts, demand for platinum remains supported by its applications in hydrogen energy, chemicals, and medical fields [7][15]. - In contrast, palladium is expected to face a supply surplus, with projections indicating a surplus of approximately 16.9 tons by 2026, which may exert downward pressure on its price [7][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the combination of tightening supply and supportive macroeconomic factors will keep platinum and palladium prices strong in the short term [7][15]. - However, there is a cautionary note regarding potential volatility and the risk of a price correction if market sentiment shifts [7][15]. - The ongoing increase in ETF holdings reflects a bullish sentiment among traders, indicating a strong short-term outlook for precious metals [7][15].