12月22日港股暗盘“大戏”：三新股冰火两重天，赛道差异成关键

Group 1: New IPO Performance - Nobikang, focused on AI industrial applications, saw a significant increase of 275.75% in its dark market trading, closing at 300.60 HKD per share with a total transaction volume of 65.22 million HKD [1] - Qingsong Health, operating in the "AI + Health" sector, also performed well with a rise of 127.95%, closing at 51.7 HKD per share and achieving over 1000 times subscription during the public offering [2] - Hansi Aitai - B, a pre-profit biotech company, had an impressive public offering with approximately 2600 times oversubscription, but its dark market performance was subdued, closing at 32.66 HKD per share with only a 2.06% increase [2] Group 2: Market Outlook for IPOs - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to recover significantly in 2025, with around 100 companies projected to raise over 250 billion HKD [3] - Forecasts for 2026 suggest that 150 to 200 new stocks may be listed, with fundraising potentially exceeding 300 billion HKD, maintaining Hong Kong's position as the top global IPO market [3] - The success rate and apparent return of new IPOs have improved, with nearly 70% of new stocks reporting gains on their first day, and 16 stocks achieving over 100% cumulative increase throughout the year [3] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Recent research indicates an increase in the first-day loss rate for new stocks since Q4, highlighting the importance of selecting quality stocks for investment [4] - The performance of the secondary market for the industry of the IPO project is crucial; better recent performance correlates with higher potential returns for IPOs [4] - High average returns from recent IPOs may signal a turning point, as returns exceeding 30% could lead to lower average returns for subsequent IPOs [4]