美联储理事米兰：明年不继续降息就有衰退风险

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan warns that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, the U.S. economy will face an increasing risk of recession [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Milan believes the unemployment rate may have risen to levels beyond expectations, which should prompt Fed decision-makers to adopt a dovish stance [1] - He argues that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year has significant upward bias, particularly due to distortions in housing CPI caused by government shutdowns [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Milan has not yet decided whether to support a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting, but he suggests that several more cuts may be necessary [1] - The decision to cut rates by 25 basis points at the December FOMC meeting faced three dissenting votes, highlighting significant internal divisions among decision-makers [1] Group 3: Diverging Opinions - The divisions among Fed officials stem from differing concerns, with some worried about a cooling labor market while others prioritize controlling inflation above the target [1] - Post-meeting forecasts indicate that most officials expect only one more rate cut next year, with six officials leaning towards maintaining current rates [1]