连锁、短视频、性价比：郝鸿峰勾勒白酒行业重生路线图

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with 99% of famous liquor prices dropping and an average retail price decline of 30% in 2025, indicating structural issues beyond cyclical fluctuations [3][6] - The industry is shifting from a "golden age" to a "bronze age," focusing on efficiency rather than resource-driven growth and moving from brand premium to value return [6] Group A: Industry Challenges - The reliance on high-end consumption and business banquets is under pressure due to policy changes aimed at "high-quality development" and "common prosperity," necessitating a transformation in the white liquor market [5] - The stagnation in mid-to-high-end liquor sales reflects deeper changes in social consumption structures, with consumers becoming more rational and diverse in their consumption scenarios [6] Group B: Chain Transformation - The transition to chain retail in the white liquor sector is seen as inevitable, akin to the replacement of small pharmacies and restaurants by chain brands, addressing inefficiencies in the current fragmented market [7] - Predictions indicate the emergence of 2-3 national chain liquor stores with over 10,000 outlets, emphasizing the need for product standardization and consumer-centric marketing [9] Group C: Short Video Marketing - The use of short videos for marketing has proven effective, with 9,500 videos produced for 368 distributors in 2025, achieving over 200 million views, showcasing a new marketing paradigm [10][12] - Short videos enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement by transforming distributors into content creators and providing a more immersive marketing experience [12][14] Group D: High Cost-Performance Products - Consumers are increasingly focused on value, seeking the best price-to-value ratio rather than the highest price, as exemplified by the success of Moutai 1935 at a price point of 700 yuan [15][17] - The rise of the self-owned brand "Rongda Sauce Liquor," which offers high quality at a significantly lower price, further validates the high cost-performance strategy [17] Group E: Future Outlook - The current industry downturn should be viewed as a necessary market cleansing and value reconstruction, with a shift from "face consumption" to "substance consumption" and from "identity symbols" to "quality enjoyment" [18][20] - The three proposed strategies—chain transformation, short video marketing, and high cost-performance products—are all centered on consumer needs, aiming to reconstruct the value system of the white liquor industry [20]