光大期货有色金属类日报12.23

Copper - Copper prices experienced narrow fluctuations overnight, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses [3][9] - The macroeconomic outlook shows significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts next year, while the market focuses on the new chairman's ability to maintain the Fed's policy independence [3][9] - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons to 157,750 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 4,247 tons to 423,556 tons [3][9] - Demand for copper is cautious, with downstream enterprises primarily purchasing based on immediate needs [3][9] - The strategy suggests maintaining a buy-on-dips approach but advises against excessive chasing of prices [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.42% to $15,260 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 2.82% to ¥122,130 per ton [4][10] - LME inventory decreased by 162 tons to 254,388 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,320 tons to 38,922 tons [4][10] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 [4][10] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase due to market sentiment, but caution is advised regarding actual implementation [4][10] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at ¥2,515 per ton, up 0.56% [5][11] - SHFE aluminum experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at ¥22,135 per ton, down 0.47% [5][11] - The market is facing pressure from increased shipments and the resumption of large-scale mining operations [5][11] - The aluminum price trend is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and macroeconomic sentiment [5][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at ¥8,595 per ton, down 0.52% [6][12] - Polysilicon prices also experienced a decline, with the main contract closing at ¥58,845 per ton, down 2.1% [6][12] - There are expectations of further environmental production cuts in the northwest, which may support industrial silicon prices [6][12] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 3.98% to ¥114,380 per ton, with significant increases in both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices [7][14] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 47 tons to 22,045 tons, while demand for ternary materials decreased [7][14] - The market is experiencing strong demand expectations, with downstream stocking intentions remaining relatively strong [7][14]