2026年美国化工业或继续疲软

Group 1 - The American Chemistry Council (ACC) forecasts that U.S. chemical production will grow by only 0.7% in 2025 and further slow to 0.3% in 2026, indicating a continuation of weak growth in the chemical sector [1] - Economic uncertainties have eased somewhat, but factors such as trade fluctuations and high interest rates continue to pose constraints on growth [1] - A recovery point is expected in mid-2026, with industrial capacity expansion plans and the lagging effects of interest rate cuts supporting growth acceleration from late 2026 to 2027 [1] Group 2 - The performance of sub-markets is notably divergent, with specialty chemicals benefiting from an 8.4% growth in coatings, leading to an overall increase of 4.3% in 2025, but a projected decline of 0.2% in 2026 [1] - Basic chemicals are expected to see a slight increase of 0.1% in 2025, with inorganic chemicals and plastic resins offsetting some growth, while a rebound to 1.2% is anticipated in 2026 [1] - Agricultural and consumer chemicals remain under pressure, with expected declines of 1.0% and 1.5% respectively in 2026, despite a 2.7% increase in agricultural chemicals and a 2.2% decrease in consumer chemicals in 2025 [1] Group 3 - The end-use markets show mixed performance, with 11 out of 20 tracked markets experiencing a decline in consumption, particularly in the apparel sector, which saw a 3% drop [2] - The semiconductor and electronics sectors are leading growth with a 12% increase, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to boost U.S. corporate investment growth to 4.1% in 2025 [2] - Non-AI sectors are facing reduced investment plans due to high interest rates and rising raw material costs, leading to an anticipated slowdown in corporate investment growth to 2.6% in 2026 [2]