Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a slight increase in spot prices, but the basis remains weak, with production cuts and inventory management being key strategies to address seasonal demand weakness [1][2][4]. Supply - December production has decreased, continuing the trend of production cuts, with a reduction of nearly 200,000 tons, representing a 6.7% month-on-month decline [2] - Current iron and steel output is at 2.26 million tons, down by 30,000 tons from the previous week [2] - The production of major steel products has shown signs of slowing down, with rebar production down by 30,000 tons to 181.7 million tons, below the required level of 208 million tons [2] Demand - Seasonal demand has weakened significantly, with December demand for major steel products at 8.46 million tons, down from 8.75 million tons in November and showing a notable year-on-year decline [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil demand have both decreased, with rebar demand down by 56,000 tons to 208 million tons and hot-rolled coil demand down by 137,000 tons to 298.3 million tons [2] Inventory - Steel mills are reducing production, but inventory levels are still being managed effectively, with a total inventory reduction of 370,000 tons to 12.95 million tons [3] - Rebar inventory decreased by 270,000 tons to 4.52 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 64,000 tons to 3.91 million tons [3] Outlook - The steel market is expected to maintain production cuts and inventory reductions, with a 6.7% decline in high-level production supporting inventory management [4] - The inventory structure remains differentiated, with rebar showing good inventory reduction while hot-rolled coil inventory remains relatively high [4] - Steel prices are expected to stabilize and recover slightly due to production cuts and stable coking coal prices, but weak demand may limit upward momentum [4] - Rebar prices are projected to remain in the range of 3000-3200, while hot-rolled coil prices are expected to be between 3150-3350 [4]
钢材：钢材减产去库 钢价维持区间震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-23 02:07