无人机来了，会和快递员、外卖员“抢饭碗”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The rise of low-altitude logistics is not about replacing delivery personnel but rather addressing the increasing demand for logistics services, filling the gap created by a shortage of human resources in the logistics sector [2][5]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The demand for instant delivery services is projected to exceed 48 billion orders in 2024, with the national express delivery volume reaching 1.45 trillion pieces from January to September this year, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.2% [2]. - The average daily express delivery volume has surged approximately sevenfold from 1 million pieces in 2019 to a peak of 72.9 million pieces, while the number of couriers has only increased from 4.2 million to 4.5 million [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Advanced technologies such as IoT, big data, artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving are enabling drones to overcome road congestion and spatial limitations, achieving point-to-point delivery with significant advantages in emergency logistics and high-frequency small-batch transportation [2][4]. - For instance, Meituan has established 64 drone delivery routes across multiple cities, completing 600,000 deliveries in the first half of 2025, doubling the previous year's performance with an average delivery time of just 15 minutes, nearly doubling the efficiency compared to traditional methods [2]. Group 3: Policy Support and Development - The rapid advancement of low-altitude logistics is supported by a series of national policies that outline development paths and key milestones, including a 2024 directive aiming for commercial applications of new general aviation equipment in urban air transport and logistics by 2027 [5]. - Local governments are also actively implementing supportive measures, such as financial subsidies for logistics route development and infrastructure planning, creating a cohesive policy support system [5]. Group 4: Safety and Regulation - The development of low-altitude logistics must prioritize safety, as emphasized by industry leaders, with regulations such as the interim measures for unmanned aerial vehicle flight management set to take effect in 2024, which will enhance safety protocols and enforcement against illegal flights [6].