政策分化经济结构转型 澳元走势现新变局

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a slight increase against the US dollar (USD), with the exchange rate rising from 0.6655 to 0.6659, reflecting a daily increase of 0.06% [1] Monetary Policy Divergence - The divergence in monetary policy among major global central banks is a key variable influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to shift towards rate hikes in 2026 despite currently maintaining a rate of 3.6% after three rate cuts in 2025 [1] - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 75 basis points this year and is one of the few central banks expected to continue cutting rates in 2026, creating uncertainty in the AUD/USD exchange rate [2] Economic Fundamentals - Australia's economic fundamentals are undergoing structural changes, supporting the AUD. The GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.1%, the fastest since Q3 2023, with new private demand growing by 3.1% and strong business investment shifting from traditional mining to emerging sectors like data centers and civil aviation [2] - Economic stimulus measures from major trading partners, such as China, are bolstering demand for Australian commodities, further enhancing economic recovery momentum [2] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is accumulating upward momentum, with a potential breakthrough of the key resistance level at 0.6595, which could lead to a target of 0.6685 [3] - The current price has stabilized above the 0.66 mark, which serves as an important short-term support level, while the 0.67 level presents some resistance [3] Market Outlook - The AUD/USD exchange rate has shifted from a traditional "interest rate differential" model to a dual logic driven by "policy path divergence" and "economic structural transformation" [3] - In the short term, the exchange rate is likely to remain within the 0.66-0.67 range, but mid-term upward potential has increased due to improvements in Australia's economic fundamentals [3] - Key factors to monitor include the RBA's guidance on potential rate hikes and the pace of adjustments in Federal Reserve policy, along with Australian business investment data and changes in demand for Australian commodities [3]