澳美震荡加息预期升温

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing narrow fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), driven by diverging monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The RBA has paused interest rate cuts and indicated an upward risk for inflation, leading the market to speculate on potential rate hikes in the coming year [1] - The RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.6% for the third consecutive time on December 9, signaling that the current easing cycle may be over, with a 50% probability of a rate hike by May next year [1] - In contrast, the Fed has implemented three rate cuts this year totaling 75 basis points, maintaining a loose monetary stance, which limits the attractiveness of the USD and indirectly supports the AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Australia's GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3, driven by strong private demand, particularly business investment, although the quarter-on-quarter growth was below expectations [1] - Inflation pressures are rising, with core inflation remaining above target levels, which is a key concern for the RBA [1] - Household consumption remains stable, with the savings rate returning to pre-pandemic levels, but consumer caution is limiting economic recovery momentum, affecting the upward trajectory of the AUD [1] Group 3: Commodity Prices and Capital Flows - As a resource-exporting economy, Australia's export performance is closely tied to global commodity demand, with recent stabilization in commodity prices providing marginal support for the AUD [2] - Diverging central bank policies have led to capital restructuring, with rising expectations for RBA rate hikes enhancing the attractiveness of AUD assets, prompting some capital to shift from USD to AUD [2] - However, the traditional safe-haven status of the USD may lead to periodic capital inflows back to the USD, complicating the trend for AUD/USD [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Technical indicators suggest that the AUD/USD pair has broken below an upward channel, indicating ongoing downward pressure, although a weaker USD provides some buffer [2] - Current support for the exchange rate is around 0.6650, with significant resistance at the 0.67 level [2] - The short-term fluctuations are seen as a market re-evaluation of RBA policies, with future movements dependent on inflation and labor data; if these data reinforce rate hike expectations, the exchange rate may break through resistance [2]