日银加息落定日元陷政策冲突困局

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate are driven by the Bank of Japan's substantial interest rate hike and the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan, creating a new dynamic in the currency market [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% on December 19, marking the largest increase since the start of policy normalization in 2024, driven by inflation exceeding the 2% target for 43 consecutive months [2][3] - Despite the rate hike, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains significant, with a 2-year yield spread of 370 basis points, limiting the potential for a sustained appreciation of the yen [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with an annualized decline of 2.3%, highlighting the fragility of the economic recovery and raising concerns that further rate hikes could dampen consumption and investment [3] - Japan's government debt has surpassed 236% of GDP, and rising interest rates could double the government's interest payments in the coming years, raising sustainability concerns for the yen [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The combination of Japan's "tight monetary + loose fiscal" policy mismatch is a key variable increasing uncertainty in the exchange rate [3] - The normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy has weakened the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal, as concerns over fiscal risks and the profitability of carry trades have emerged [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Predictions - UBS predicts that the USD/JPY exchange rate may decline to 136 by June 2026, but short-term volatility is expected due to uncertainties in Japanese politics [4] - The current trading range for USD/JPY is likely to remain between 154 and 158, with key resistance at 157 and support at 154.35, as the market awaits clearer policy direction [4] - Future movements in the exchange rate will depend on the alignment of interest rate paths between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, as well as the evolution of fiscal risks in Japan [4]