长城基金：积极布局跨年行情

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend amidst fluctuations, with strong performance in sectors such as retail, beauty care, and non-bank financials, driven by the "reward economy" concept [1][6] - New retail, spandex, and dairy industries performed well, while previously popular themes like nuclear fusion and Hainan Free Trade Zone experienced corrections, and technology growth faced adjustments [1][6] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The latest November economic data indicates signs of recovery in external demand and a rebound in price levels, although internal demand momentum remains insufficient [1][6] - The overall policy stance is focused on stability, with a need for targeted and structural policies to be implemented more quickly [1][6] - Key areas to monitor include indications of next year's policy direction from local two sessions, the potential increase in physical workload from policy financial tools, and the timing of potential policies related to real estate and service consumption subsidies [1][6] Group 3: U.S. Inflation Data - U.S. November inflation data significantly underperformed expectations, with CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates at 2.74% and 2.63%, respectively, both well below market forecasts and previous values [2][7] - The super core CPI growth rate for October-November dropped to its lowest since April 2021, influenced by factors such as government shutdowns leading to fiscal tightening and reduced demand [2][7] - The decline in inflation is attributed to multiple factors, including temporary disturbances from the Thanksgiving sales season and unsustainable negative growth in housing inflation [2][7] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, the U.S. economy may experience a phase of overheating in Q1 next year due to a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policies and seasonal factors [2][7] - The recent slowdown in economic activity may lead to an upward adjustment in market policy expectations, with a potential cross-year market rally beginning to take shape [2][7] - In the context of stable RMB exchange rates, expectations for the People's Bank of China to implement easing policies in 2026 are likely to rise [2][7] Group 5: Spring Market Trends - Historical patterns indicate that spring market rallies typically occur between December of the previous year and April of the following year, often characterized by a "large-cap platform, small-cap performance" style [3][8] - Given the recent deep market adjustments and expectations for increased policy support, the current period may represent an important window for positioning ahead of the upcoming spring market [3][8] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors aligned with industrial trends, particularly large-cap growth and value styles benefiting from insurance capital allocation [3][8]