PX/PTA强势反弹背后：供需改善与技术面共振，关注后续减产动向

Group 1 - The main contracts for PX and PTA saw significant increases, rising by 3.98% and 4.52% respectively, driven by favorable long-term expectations [8] - PX is expected to remain tight in the first half of the year due to a lack of new production capacity until Q3 2026 and concentrated maintenance plans in Q2 2024, despite high existing operational levels [8] - PTA's supply pressure is expected to ease as no new production capacity is planned until 2026, and with ongoing polyester production capacity being added, the market outlook for PTA has improved [8] Group 2 - Recent improvements in PTA's fundamentals have led to a stronger basis, with downstream inventory at low levels prompting significant replenishment demand [8] - Polyester production has maintained high operating rates above 91%, while PTA maintenance has limited supply recovery, resulting in a favorable market environment [8] - The technical outlook shows that recent funding increases have allowed PX and PTA prices to break through long-term downtrend lines, indicating a potential upward trend [9] Group 3 - Despite the positive outlook for PX and PTA, there is a cautionary note regarding the rapid price increases driven by concentrated funding, which may lead to a risk of funding withdrawal [9] - The decline in terminal weaving orders and operations, coupled with rising raw material prices, poses a risk of losses for polyester filament, prompting major manufacturers to implement self-discipline production cuts [9]