华泰期货：昨日沪镍大幅反弹，持续性尚待验证

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have rebounded significantly, reaching a two-month high, primarily driven by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [6][7]. Group 1: Nickel Price Movement - On the previous trading day, the main nickel contract opened at 116,600 CNY/ton and closed at 121,360 CNY/ton, marking a 4.55% increase [6]. - Nickel prices have risen sharply over two consecutive trading days [6]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the Indonesian government proposed a 34% reduction in next year's production, lowering it to 250 million tons [6]. - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to revise the benchmark pricing formula for nickel ore in early 2026, which may lead to increased costs for associated minerals like cobalt [6]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The recent news has strengthened expectations for supply contraction and cost increases, contributing to the strong rebound in nickel prices [6]. - However, the accuracy of these policies remains uncertain as they have not been officially announced by the Indonesian government, and there is potential for modifications [7]. - Additionally, downstream stainless steel consumption is currently in a low season, and nickel inventories in Shanghai continue to rise, raising questions about the sustainability of the price rebound [7].