华泰期货：铂钯主力合约连续涨停，宏观数据与供需紧张双轮驱动

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium futures is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, with significant price increases observed in both metals due to changing employment and inflation data in the U.S. [2][8] Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures (PT2606) closed at 568.45 CNY/gram, with a rise of 6.99% [2] - Palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 508.45 CNY/gram, with a rise of 7% [2] - In the last four trading days, platinum has hit the limit up twice, while palladium has done so three times [2][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations, but the October employment data was significantly revised down [8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a cooling job market [8] - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, while the core CPI rose by 2.6%, also below previous and market expectations [8] Group 3: Market Expectations - The inflation data has reinforced market expectations for a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, contributing to strong performance in precious metals [8] - The current gold-to-platinum ratio is around 2.1, indicating potential for correction compared to the historical average of 1.5 [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The pause in full electrification in Europe and North America, along with advancements in hydrogen technology, is expected to boost future demand for platinum and palladium [8] - Supply constraints from South Africa and Russia are not expected to ease in the short term, further tightening the supply-demand balance [8]