不锈钢：盘面维持偏强运行 强预期和弱现实博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with price fluctuations, driven by supply constraints and weak demand in the downstream sectors [3] Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons, representing a decline of 1.6%, but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December crude steel production is projected at 3.2258 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.29% [2] - The overall reduction in steel production is limited, but year-end maintenance and losses may lead more mills to reduce output [2] Inventory - Social inventory is decreasing, but high inventory levels remain a significant concern, with warehouse receipts continuing to trend downward [2] - As of December 19, social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 484,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,400 tons [2] - On December 18, stainless steel futures inventory stood at 48,855 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,523 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is maintaining a strong performance, with a rising atmosphere for price increases, although high-priced transactions are limited [3] - Nickel ore prices are influenced by news from Indonesia, with expectations of a decline in domestic trade benchmark prices [3] - Nickel iron transaction prices have risen to around 900 yuan per nickel (including tax), indicating a recovery in iron plant profits [3] - Demand remains weak in downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction, leading to limited order releases [3] Short-term Outlook - The market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, but the fundamental supply-demand dynamics will continue to create fluctuations [3] - The main price reference for stainless steel is set between 12,300 and 13,000 yuan, with attention on nickel ore news and the execution of production cuts by steel mills [3]