现货黄金年内飙升近68%！三重逻辑支撑黄金新叙事！有色ETF华宝（159876）盘中拉升2.3%创历史新高！

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high since its listing, reflecting a significant increase since its low point in April [1][9] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 23, the non-ferrous metal sector saw a rise, with Huabao ETF's price increasing over 2.3% and currently up 1.89% [1][9] - Since its low on April 8, Huabao ETF has accumulated a rise of 89.68%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (26.51%) and CSI 300 (28.48%) [1][9] Group 2: Index Performance - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metal Index has shown varied performance over the past five years: 35.84% in 2020, 35.89% in 2021, -19.22% in 2022, -10.43% in 2023, and 2.96% in 2024 [3][11] - Key stocks leading the gains include: - Bowei Alloy and Shandong Gold both up over 8% - Yunnan Zinc Industry up over 6% - Nanshan Aluminum, Xiamen Tungsten, and Shengxin Lithium Energy all up over 5% [3][11] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold has surged nearly 68% this year, driven by three main factors: 1. Central banks' continuous gold purchases since 2022 as a strategic reserve 2. Geopolitical uncertainties prompting a shift away from traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar 3. Market re-evaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and US debt issues [4][12] - Analysts predict that the current gold bull market may be in its "mid-stage," with UBS forecasting gold prices to reach $4,500 per ounce by June 2026, and Goldman Sachs projecting a 14% increase to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [5][13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its bull market, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities optimistic about a comprehensive bull market, and CITIC Securities highlighting ongoing investment interest in commodities [6][13] - Key areas of focus include: 1. Industrial metals like copper and aluminum with constrained supply and recovering demand 2. Energy metals such as lithium and cobalt benefiting from surging demand for energy storage and power batteries 3. Strategic assets like gold and rare earths [6][13]