长江有色：美指下跌提振及印尼新政扰动 23日镍价或上涨

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a dynamic interplay between supply contraction expectations due to Indonesian policies and the reality of global oversupply, leading to price fluctuations driven by sentiment and news [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London nickel prices rose by 2.42%, closing at $15,260 per ton, an increase of $360 per ton, with a trading volume of 18,763 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai nickel futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract closing at 122,130 yuan per ton, up 2.82% [1]. - The LME reported a decrease in nickel inventory to 254,388 tons, down by 162 tons from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The Shanghai nickel futures opened higher, with the main contract starting at 120,280 yuan per ton, up 1,500 yuan from the previous settlement [2]. - The market is influenced by expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, positive sentiment around AI stocks, and a holiday liquidity environment, contributing to a weaker dollar index and rising U.S. stock indices [2]. - The recent adjustments in Indonesian policies have injected a "policy premium" into nickel prices, despite ongoing capacity releases and inventory accumulation in the industry [3]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand for nickel is showing structural differentiation, with stainless steel facing challenges from weak real estate and low profits, while the new energy sector continues to grow but is experiencing competition between high-nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate technologies [3]. - The distribution of pressure across the industry chain is uneven, with upstream resource control facing policy risks, midstream profits being squeezed, and downstream maintaining low inventory levels [3]. Group 4: Price Outlook - Short-term nickel prices are expected to remain strong, driven by sentiment and news, with an anticipated increase today [4]. - The medium to long-term direction of nickel prices will depend on the clarity of Indonesian policies and whether global demand can recover beyond expectations [4].