午评：沪指涨0.34%创业板指涨近1% 锂电产业链集体走强

Market Overview - The market experienced a morning rally with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1%. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3930.87 points, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of 518 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13419.60 points, up 0.65%, with a trading volume of 720.1 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3217.02 points, up 0.78%, with a trading volume of 328.9 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - The battery, photolithography, and precious metals sectors saw significant gains, while tourism, education, and film industry sectors experienced notable declines [2]. Market Hotspots - The lithium battery industry chain showed rapid strength, with stocks like Tianji Co. and Tianci Materials hitting the daily limit. The non-ferrous tungsten concept also performed actively, with Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten both hitting the daily limit. The semiconductor equipment concept continued its strong performance, with Shenghui Integration achieving a historical high with two consecutive limit-ups. Conversely, the commercial aerospace concept retreated after a peak, with Aerospace Machinery hitting the daily limit down. The film industry concept saw multiple stocks decline, with Bona Film Group experiencing two consecutive limit-downs [3]. Institutional Insights - According to Furuang Fund, following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points (as expected), while the European Central Bank remained unchanged. This policy divergence has caused short-term fluctuations in global capital markets. Looking ahead, with the Fed's December rate cut and the implementation of domestic policies, the medium-term trend for A-shares remains positive. Notably, at last week's market low, there was a significant net subscription for broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 and A500, indicating strong market resilience. In a volatile market, structural rotation is accelerating, and there is a need to be cautious of a potential style shift from growth to value. The current recommendation is to focus on high-growth sectors for next year, particularly in AI computing and applications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, as well as sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as new energy, steel, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to see valuation recovery due to improved policy environments [4]. - According to Yinhua Fund, the current position in the profit cycle is low, with ROE declining for 18 consecutive quarters, although the downward trend is showing signs of slowing. The inventory cycle has also reached an inflection point. The number of sectors showing signs of recovery is increasing. Short-term trading activity has decreased significantly, with trading volumes around 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a phase of low market sentiment. The outlook remains optimistic under the assumption of weak recovery by 2026. In terms of style/sector, the preference remains for growth over value, with small caps slightly outperforming large caps throughout the year. If recovery expectations strengthen, large-cap stocks may see a temporary return to favor. Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), military industry, resource products, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [5]. News Highlights - In Fujian Pingtan, a new round of customs operations is entering a critical phase, with three major sectors being accelerated. The new customs operations will clarify the main island of Pingtan as a customs supervision area, facilitating more convenient customs measures. The approach has shifted from "loosening" to "opening," allowing for easier movement of people and goods, thereby enhancing the level of openness. The industrial orientation is also clearer, aligning with the construction of an international tourism island and the demand for opening up [6]. Trading Volume Milestone - The A-share market has set a new record, with total trading volume exceeding 405 trillion yuan as of December 22, 2025, marking the first time annual trading volume has surpassed 400 trillion yuan. The overall turnover rate has also improved, with an average turnover rate close to 1.74%, potentially reaching a new high since 2016. Notably, 19 individual stocks have seen annual trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongfang Fortune, and Xinyisheng exceeding 20 trillion yuan; while stocks like Hanwujishi-U, Ningde Times, and Shenghong Technology have exceeded 18 trillion yuan [7].