盘点2025国际风云十大关键词

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Policies - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy under Trump's administration has significantly impacted the global multilateral trade system, leading to increased uncertainty in global trade and a decline in trade growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.1% in Q3 2025 [2] - The World Trade Organization reported a 41% increase in trade remedy investigations, with 193 new cases initiated in 2025, indicating a shift in traditional allies' trade relationships with the U.S. towards more diversified and pragmatic approaches [2] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has faced challenges, with nine consecutive months of contraction due to declining orders and rising raw material costs, prompting a potential shift in tariff strategies [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - The global geopolitical landscape has become increasingly complex, with multiple conflicts erupting over territorial and resource disputes, leading to heightened security anxieties among nations [3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has persisted for nearly four years, with no clear resolution in sight, despite attempts for ceasefire negotiations [3] - Over thirty countries or regions are currently experiencing war or armed conflict, with geopolitical crises and armed conflicts identified as the top global risks for 2025 [3] Group 3: Climate Change and Natural Disasters - Extreme weather events have surged, with global temperature increases pushing climate systems to critical risk points, resulting in widespread disasters and humanitarian crises [8] - Significant incidents include wildfires in California, heat-related deaths in Spain, and flooding in Indonesia, highlighting the urgent need for a global disaster response framework [8] - The implementation of the Paris Agreement's goals remains significantly behind schedule, constrained by geopolitical interests and resistance from major oil-producing nations [8] Group 4: Artificial Intelligence and Technology - The advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly large language models, is reshaping global economies and industries, with the U.S. government launching a new initiative to leverage AI for scientific research [9][10] - The European Union has established a comprehensive legal framework for AI, imposing significant penalties on companies for non-compliance, reflecting growing concerns over ethical and safety governance in technology [10] - Major tech companies are forming partnerships that blur the lines between clients, suppliers, and capacity providers, indicating a rapidly evolving ecosystem around AI investments [10] Group 5: Global Debt Crisis - Global debt levels surpassed $355 trillion in Q2 2025, marking an increase of $8.3 trillion from the previous year, with a debt-to-GDP ratio reaching a historic high of 368% [11] - Developed economies, including the U.S., France, Germany, and Japan, have seen the most significant increases in debt levels, with the U.S. federal debt reaching $39.2 trillion [11] - Emerging markets are also facing substantial debt challenges, with 60% of low-income countries in debt distress, highlighting the risks associated with limited foreign exchange reserves and financing options [11] Group 6: European Strategic Autonomy - The transatlantic relationship has been strained due to trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, prompting Europe to reassess its strategic autonomy, particularly in defense [13][14] - France and Germany are collaborating on enhancing Europe's nuclear deterrent capabilities and strengthening coordination within NATO, reflecting a shift towards greater European defense independence [13] - The European Parliament has passed significant reforms aimed at transitioning the defense industry from a peacetime to a wartime footing, emphasizing the need for a robust military-industrial complex [14]