“妖镍”再起？印尼配额新变数引爆镍市新行情 后市剑指何方？

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, influenced by improved macro sentiment and short-term supply-demand changes [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 23, 2025, the spot market price for 1 nickel ranges from 122,700 to 128,900 yuan/ton, with an average of 125,800 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 3,850 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The futures market shows even stronger performance, with the main contract for nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising by over 3% during trading [1] - LME nickel prices also saw a significant increase in overnight trading, leading gains in the base metals sector [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global nickel market is undergoing profound changes in supply and demand structures due to the green transition and industrial chain restructuring [2] - Indonesia's policy adjustments are a core variable affecting supply, with changes in quota approval and new capacity thresholds continuing to disrupt medium to long-term supply expectations [2] - Demand from the stainless steel industry remains cautious due to terminal consumption and industry profit constraints, while the anticipated growth in the new energy battery sector is showing seasonal slowdowns [2] Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - Nickel ore price fluctuations directly impact the cost curves of various smelting paths, with integrated resource-smelting companies enjoying significant cost advantages [3] - Nickel iron prices show some resilience at low points, indicating a tight balance in the spot market, while nickel sulfate prices are under pressure due to a slowdown in downstream demand [3] - The overall industry chain is currently in a state of "weak supply and demand, dynamic balance" [3] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments by Leading Companies - Leading companies are actively adjusting strategies in response to the current industry environment, with some implementing planned production cuts or line maintenance due to short-term profit pressures [4] - Companies are accelerating the development of high-value projects such as high-grade nickel and nickel sulfate, pushing the industry structure towards deeper processing [4] - Market focus is heavily concentrated on Indonesian policy developments, particularly regarding the recent reduction in domestic benchmark prices for nickel ore [4][5] Group 5: Short-term Price Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, with a core range of 122,000 to 130,000 yuan/ton [6] - The main logic behind this outlook includes macro sentiment support, limited supply elasticity due to policy uncertainties in major producing countries, and resilient demand from stainless steel [6] - Key factors for future price movements include the execution of Indonesian policies, recovery in stainless steel consumption, and the evolution of inventory replenishment in the new energy supply chain [6]