创金合信基金魏凤春：2026年政策交易的逻辑

Group 1 - The core investment strategy for 2026 focuses on internal demand expansion, with a gradual approach to policy implementation [6][39] - The government aims to address low prices through demand stimulation and supply-side adjustments, which will help increase tax revenue and improve corporate profitability [30][31] - The emphasis on policy analysis highlights the importance of understanding government behavior and its impact on asset allocation [2][25] Group 2 - The 2026 policy goals include a shift from external pressures to internal dynamics, with a consensus on expanding domestic demand [31] - Liquidity will focus on structural adjustments rather than total volume, as the real estate sector's contribution to tax revenue diminishes [32] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate, which could help alleviate internal price stagnation and support asset revaluation [33] Group 3 - A significant increase in bond supply is anticipated, which will serve as a substitute for tax revenue and help address public income distribution issues [34] - Local governments are expected to optimize existing assets to alleviate cash flow pressures, with strategies like resource assetization and securitization [35] - Class stabilization funds will continue to mitigate negative externalities in the market, ensuring that stock market adjustments remain within controllable limits [36] Group 4 - The complete asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes a "risk premium down, profit up, structural differentiation" framework, with a focus on cyclical resonance [38] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a shift from "weak recovery + strong differentiation" to "overall improvement," with corporate profits expected to recover [40] - The investment direction will prioritize midstream manufacturing and new productive forces, with a focus on high-rated credit bonds and interest rate bonds [42]