日本央行前委员：日本财政困境可能导致日元进一步下跌，国债收益率上升

Core Viewpoint - Japan may face further depreciation of the yen and rising government bond yields due to market concerns over the government's expansionary fiscal policy [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Currency - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, yet the yen continues to decline [1][2] - Market interpretations of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments suggest that the central bank is not in a hurry to raise rates further [1][2] - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to market skepticism regarding Japan's ability to maintain fiscal order [1][2][3] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - Japan's public debt is expected to increase further, supported by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies [4] - The upcoming fiscal year's budget may exceed 122 trillion yen (approximately $781 billion), requiring new bond issuance higher than the previous year's 28.6 trillion yen [4] - An economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen will be introduced to alleviate the impact of rising living costs on households [4] Group 3: Bond Market and Economic Risks - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a 27-year high of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of further rate hikes and large-scale bond issuance [3][4] - If the bond market continues to sell off, the Bank of Japan may need to reassess its bond reduction plans or create a framework to assist small banks suffering from significant losses due to bond holdings [4] - Rising bond yields are identified as the biggest risk facing Japan's economy in the coming year [4]