中国有色金属工业协会锡业分会发布倡议书：价格的非理性上涨已经对产业链供应链造成冲击

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in tin prices is driven by multiple factors including the extension of a six-month ban on artisanal mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ongoing M23 conflicts, and slow recovery in Myanmar's mining sector, leading to record highs in tin prices [3][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply from major producing countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar is stabilizing, with exports from Wa State reaching nearly 1,000 tons per month. Domestic tin smelting capacity has been fully released, with refined tin production from January to November reaching 189,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [4][12]. - Both LME and SHFE tin inventories remain stable at around 10,000 tons, indicating no supply tightness. Despite growth in demand from emerging sectors like photovoltaics and automotive electronics, traditional sectors show stable demand, with global tin consumption expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, lagging behind production growth by about 0.5 percentage points [4][12]. Impact on Industry - The irrational price increase is disrupting the supply chain, causing challenges for upstream and downstream companies. Upstream firms may benefit in the short term, but volatility disrupts production planning and long-term investment decisions. Downstream users, particularly in solder, tinplate, and chemicals, face significant cost pressures, with some small to medium enterprises struggling to afford raw materials and fulfill long-term contracts [5][13]. - The electronic manufacturing sector, a major consumer of tin-based solder, is particularly affected, with rising costs in PCB manufacturing and semiconductor packaging severely eroding profits. Small electronic manufacturers are caught in a squeeze, facing soaring raw material prices while being unable to quickly raise end-product prices [5][13]. Long-term Risks - The volatility in tin prices poses a serious threat to the high-quality development of the tin industry. Unsustainable high prices may lead to a sharp decline once speculative funds withdraw, creating a rollercoaster effect that could further impact the entire supply chain. Speculative-driven price distortions hinder effective resource allocation, diverting focus from technological innovation and green transformation [6][14]. - The cyclical nature of price surges and drops undermines the overall risk resilience of the tin industry, which is crucial for establishing a stable and modern industrial system [6][14]. Strategic Importance of Tin - Tin is a critical strategic metal, essential for various sectors including electronic soldering, renewable energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, green tin plating, and national defense. The stability of tin supply and prices is directly linked to the stability and competitiveness of the domestic industrial chain [7][15]. - To maintain market order and create a stable environment, industry associations are calling for rational and cautious market behavior, urging stakeholders to avoid blind speculation and to collaboratively guide prices back to reasonable levels while improving long-term market mechanisms [7][15].