从同步宽松到政策割裂 全球货币政策进入“非对称周期”

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary policy landscape is experiencing a rare "three-way divergence," with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England shifting to interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan raising rates, and other central banks like the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining their current rates, reflecting a significant weakening of global monetary policy coordination [1][11]. Summary by Central Banks Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut, with a focus on rising risks in the employment market as the core reason for the shift [3]. - The long-term median forecast for the federal funds rate remains at 3.0%, indicating acceptance of a "higher neutral rate" in the new normal [3]. Bank of England - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, reflecting internal divisions on policy direction amid concerns over weak domestic demand and potential inflation persistence [7]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, based on stable core inflation and a sustainable wage-price cycle [4]. European Central Bank - The European Central Bank maintained its deposit rate at 2% while raising growth and inflation forecasts for 2025-2028, indicating a potential end to the easing cycle that began in 2024 [5][6]. Reserve Bank of Australia - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.60%, signaling a cautious approach amid strong domestic demand and inflation risks [8]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate at 2.25%, emphasizing manageable inflation pressures and planning a review of its monetary policy framework in 2026 [9]. Swiss National Bank - The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0%, facing economic weakness and low inflation, while ruling out a return to negative interest rates [10]. Global Monetary Policy Trends - The global monetary policy is transitioning from a coordinated easing approach to a differentiated management strategy based on national economic fundamentals, influenced by economic cycle discrepancies and inflation path divergences [11][12]. - This divergence is reshaping cross-border capital flows, exchange rate mechanisms, and global asset allocation strategies, necessitating a multi-dimensional analysis framework for investors [11][12].