供需结构环比转弱 预计铁矿石期货仍有回调空间

Market Review - Iron ore futures prices increased, with the main contract closing at 781.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 1.9% [1] Fundamental Summary - Satellite data indicates that from December 15 to December 21, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 12.247 million tons, an increase of 527,000 tons month-on-month, showing a slight recovery trend [2] - In the third week of December 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments totaled 24.725 million tons, down from 30.570 million tons in December of the previous year. The average daily shipment was 1.648 million tons, which is a 13.23% increase compared to 1.456 million tons per day in December of last year [2] - According to customs statistics, China's iron ore and its concentrate imports in November 2025 amounted to 110.54 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% but a year-on-year increase of 8.72% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that the emergency response to heavy pollution in North China has been lifted, which may lead to a rebound in iron demand, suggesting a strong price trend for iron ore. Although the supply-demand structure has weakened month-on-month, the decline in demand has shown some improvement, coupled with a rebound in finished product demand, indicating a strong price trend. However, the strength in finished products may not be sustainable, and a price correction is expected [3] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures stated that the current iron ore market supply has slightly decreased. Despite a continued decline in pig iron production, steel mills have low inventory levels and there is an expectation of a rebound in pig iron production in January, leading to a short-term oscillating price trend for iron ore [3]