TECH-LONG(SZ:002209) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-23 06:29Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the company, as a leading player in the beverage packaging machinery industry, is expected to benefit from the significant price gap between domestic and imported machinery, with domestic export prices averaging less than $200 per unit compared to $36,300 for imports [1] - The company has nearly 30 years of experience in liquid packaging equipment manufacturing, with its technology being at a leading level domestically and having exported to multiple countries [1] - The company has a sufficient order backlog, which is expected to support its performance starting from 2025 [1] Group 2 - The domestic packaging machinery manufacturing market is experiencing a clear trend of domestic substitution, with production of specialized packaging equipment reaching 1.7555 million units by November 2025, and domestic manufacturers gaining competitiveness in the mid-to-low-end market [2] - The Chinese beverage market is currently only one-third the size of the U.S. market, indicating significant growth potential, especially with the rapid development of the sugar-free beverage sector [2] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.335 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.95%, while net profit increased by 146.16% to 103 million yuan [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 1.87 billion, 2.22 billion, and 2.44 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 130 million, 200 million, and 230 million yuan [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 19.8 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026, with an initial "buy" rating [3]