煤焦油市场年末降温

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coal tar market has experienced a one-month recovery since mid-November, peaking at a transaction price of 3460 yuan per ton in early December, but has since softened due to various factors, including a decline in downstream market prices and increased production capacity utilization [1] Group 1: Downstream Industry Weakness - The decline in the coal tar market is attributed to the weakening of the downstream deep processing industry, with prices for key products like carbon black and coal pitch showing a downward trend starting from early December [2] - As of December 18, prices for various downstream products have decreased, with notable weekly declines, indicating a broader market downturn [2] - The drop in coal pitch prices, a core product of coal tar processing, has further weakened market support, leading to price reductions in regions like Shanxi and Shandong [2] Group 2: Increased Production Capacity Utilization - The production capacity utilization rate of domestic coking enterprises has increased to over 73%, up by about 2% from November, contributing to stable coal tar output [3] - Despite recent price reductions in coke, the decrease in raw material costs has improved profits for coking enterprises, maintaining stable production levels [3] - The concentration of the coal tar industry has increased, with leading companies achieving significant economies of scale, which amplifies the impact of supply and demand changes in the market [3] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - The trading atmosphere has become increasingly cautious, with traders' actions significantly influencing market volatility [5] - Traders have reduced their participation in auctions due to a prevailing bearish sentiment, leading to lower final transaction prices in recent auctions [5][6] - Despite the potential for further downward price adjustments, the overall supply of coal tar is expected to remain stable, with downstream processing enterprises maintaining relatively high operating rates [6]