2026年人民币有望维持温和升值势头

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the global financial market underwent significant changes, including a shift in monetary policy and economic restructuring, leading to a "weak first, strong later, and narrowing volatility" trend in the RMB exchange rate against the USD [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 22, 2025, the RMB appreciated approximately 3.7% against the USD, closing at 7.0382 RMB per USD, an increase of 2606 basis points from the previous year [1] - Predictions for 2026 suggest a continued trend of moderate appreciation for the RMB, with expected exchange rates ranging between 6.7 and 7.2 RMB per USD, and a year-end target of 6.7 to 7.0 RMB per USD [1][2] Group 2: Economic Factors Supporting RMB Strength - Analysts believe that the core factors supporting the RMB's appreciation include the domestic economic fundamentals, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the stance of the People's Bank of China [2] - China's GDP is expected to grow around 5.0% in 2026, with a healthy trade surplus and current account providing a solid foundation for the RMB [2][3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2025, China's exports grew by 5.4% year-on-year, despite challenging trade conditions with the US, indicating resilience in the face of tariffs [2] - Deutsche Bank forecasts a 6% growth in Chinese exports for 2026, supported by China's industrial advantages and diversification into non-US markets [3] Group 4: Capital Flows and Market Sentiment - A significant reversal in the willingness of export enterprises to settle foreign exchange has been a key factor in the RMB's appreciation since September 2025 [4] - Analysts note that the historical accumulation of approximately $1 trillion in unconverted export earnings could lead to increased capital inflows as RMB appreciation expectations solidify [4] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Market Stability - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the USD index are critical variables influencing the RMB exchange rate, with expectations of continued easing from the Fed [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a relatively independent monetary policy, with potential rate cuts in 2026, which will support the RMB's appreciation trend [6][7] Group 6: RMB Internationalization - The Chinese government's shift towards promoting RMB internationalization is expected to enhance demand for the currency, contributing to its steady appreciation [8] - Analysts predict that 2026 could mark the beginning of a new appreciation cycle for the RMB, with expectations of breaking the 7.0 mark against the USD [8]