国泰君安期货：金银铂钯年末表现强势，明年要关注哪些变化？

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector has shown strong performance this year, with gold and silver breaking historical highs, and platinum and palladium also experiencing upward momentum. Factors such as macroeconomic support, spot market contradictions, demand expectations, and market sentiment are driving precious metal prices. As the year ends, attention should be paid to the driving factors for the precious metals sector in the coming year and how they may differ from this year [3][10]. Gold - U.S. Monetary Policy: The median forecast from the Federal Reserve's dot plot in September and December indicates that the interest rate cut cycle may continue into 2026, but at a slower pace. Monitoring whether policy rates approach the theoretical neutral rate is essential [3][10]. - U.S. Fiscal Expansion: The Federal Reserve is set to restart balance sheet expansion in December, primarily through short-term Treasury purchases. The impact of this expansion on U.S. dollar liquidity should be observed [3][10]. - Geopolitical Factors: The global economic and political uncertainty index reached a historical high in April and remains elevated. Attention should be given to short-term impacts from "event-driven" factors on gold, as well as broader long-term strategic considerations [3][10]. Silver - Continued Macroeconomic Easing: The current macroeconomic environment remains accommodative, which may have a relatively mild impact on silver prices [4][11]. - Ongoing Spot Market Contradictions: Factors such as supply-demand gaps, tariff expectations leading to inventory arbitrage, and continuous accumulation in silver ETFs are causing persistent contradictions in the silver spot market. Monitoring changes in futures inventory, London market leasing rates, and domestic-international price differentials is crucial [5][11]. - Demand Growth Points: Attention should be paid to whether the growth rate of photovoltaic installations domestically and internationally will face a decline, as well as the consumption of silver by AI computing centers [6][12]. Platinum and Palladium - Supply Constraints: South Africa is facing electricity supply shortages, rising mining costs, and decreased willingness to develop new projects, which may limit the growth elasticity of platinum group metal production next year. The potential for recycled supply to alleviate tight supply-demand conditions should be monitored [6][13]. - Demand Side Differences: In the automotive catalytic field, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid vehicles globally may alleviate the pressure on platinum and palladium demand caused by the decline in pure gasoline vehicle ownership. The forms of investment demand differ, with physical investment in platinum and financial instruments like ETFs for palladium being areas of focus [6][13]. - Capital Outflow Effect: Attention should be given to the "investment spillover" effect within the precious metals sector, especially after sustained strong performance in silver, which may lead to significant price fluctuations in platinum and palladium [6][13].