交易员指南：读懂日本决策者各种日元“口头警告”背后的信号

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar despite the Bank of Japan raising its benchmark interest rate to a 30-year high, prompting market speculation on potential government interventions if the yen depreciates further [1][2]. Group 1: Government Response and Strategy - Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki indicated that the government has the "autonomous decision-making power" to take bold actions if the exchange rate deviates from fundamentals, marking her strongest warning to date [1][2]. - Since taking office in October, Finance Minister Suzuki has largely followed the foreign exchange communication strategy established by her predecessor [7]. - The Japanese government has previously intervened in the foreign exchange market when the yen approached 160 against the dollar, providing a reference for intervention thresholds [1][2]. Group 2: Intervention Protocols - Japanese officials typically deny having a red line for intervening in the foreign exchange market, stating that action is only warranted in cases of sudden, disorderly, or speculative market fluctuations [1][6]. - Before taking direct intervention measures, officials usually issue a series of carefully considered warnings to signal how far they are from taking action [6]. - The recent invocation of the US-Japan foreign exchange agreement from September allows for appropriate intervention during excessive market volatility [1]. Group 3: Key Warning Phrases - Officials adhere to G-20 principles, emphasizing that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and that excessive volatility is harmful to the economy [3][9]. - As concerns escalate, officials may express that the negative impacts of a weakening yen are becoming increasingly evident, indicating a shift in their communication strategy [4][10]. - When intervention becomes a real possibility, officials may state that they are prepared to take appropriate actions to curb excessive market fluctuations [5][10].