Investors Hope the Santa Rally Is Hitching Up Its Reindeer

Core Viewpoint - The potential for a Santa Claus rally in the stock market is emerging as investors are concerned about a challenging December, with historical data suggesting a positive trend during this period [1][2]. Group 1: Santa Claus Rally - The Santa Claus rally typically occurs during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, with the S&P 500 averaging a gain of 1.3% during this seven-day period since 1950 [2]. - Citadel Securities data indicates that the S&P 500 has gained 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, also averaging a 1.3% increase [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - The S&P 500 has experienced a 16.2% increase in 2025, with banks forecasting further gains and strong corporate earnings in 2026 [4]. - Recent Labor Department data suggested easing inflation in November, which may lead to more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, positively impacting the tech sector [4]. - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, which tracks top-performing tech megacaps, rose by 0.8% on a recent Friday, indicating renewed interest in the tech industry [4]. Group 3: December Performance Insights - A four-day losing streak temporarily placed the S&P 500 in negative territory for December, but it rebounded with a 0.8% gain on Thursday and a 0.9% gain on Friday [6]. - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the holiday rally tends to be significantly positive, with the S&P's mean return for December since 1928 being 1.98%, and from December 18 to 31, it has been 1.77% [6].