智通财经网·2025-12-23 07:08Core Viewpoint - The recent demand for photovoltaic glass has been weak, leading to an increase in inventory days and a price drop to 11.5 yuan/square meter, with four leading companies nearing breakeven profitability while others face deeper losses, indicating a widening profitability gap in the industry [1] Supply and Demand - By 2026, the capacity utilization rate for photovoltaic glass is expected to further polarize, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons in domestic production to achieve supply-demand balance. Domestic component demand is projected to decline, resulting in a corresponding drop in photovoltaic glass demand of approximately 23-36%. Conversely, overseas component demand is anticipated to grow by about 60 GW compared to this year, with total demand reaching 150 GW, necessitating the allocation of 8,800 tons of domestic capacity for direct sales of glass overseas [2] Pricing and Costs - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with the average price this year being 12.59 yuan/square meter, a year-on-year decline of 15.83%. The average price next year is projected to remain between 13-13.5 yuan/square meter, adhering to the guideline of not selling below cost. There is potential for slight cost reductions due to oversupply of raw materials like heavy alkali and ultra-white quartz sand, stable natural gas prices, and a gradual decrease in the use of antimony in clarifying agents [2] Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an improvement in profit margins, while second-tier companies face risks of further declines in profitability. Domestic leading glass companies are projected to improve profitability next year, while second-tier companies struggle to increase sales through prices below the industry average. Internationally, demand from foreign component manufacturers is expected to remain strong, with net profits likely to stay above 3 yuan/square meter. Leading companies can enhance overall profit margins by increasing overseas shipments, with the top two companies expected to see a 5 percentage point increase in comprehensive profit margins compared to this year, while second-tier companies like Nanbo A and Qibin Group may see a 2-3 percentage point increase [3] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends focusing on Xinyi Solar (00968) and Flat Glass (601865.SH), while suggesting attention to Nanbo A (000012.SZ) and Qibin Group (601636.SH) [3]