智通财经网·2025-12-23 07:25Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently experiencing weak demand, with inventory days increasing and prices dropping to RMB 11.5 per square meter, leading to near breakeven profitability for four leading companies while others face deepening losses [1] Supply and Demand - The report indicates that by 2026, the industry's capacity utilization will become increasingly polarized, requiring a reduction of 5,000 to 20,000 tons of domestic photovoltaic glass capacity to achieve supply-demand balance [1] - Domestic demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline by approximately 23% to 36% due to weakened component demand next year, while overseas component demand is projected to grow by about 60 GW, reaching a total demand of 150 GW [1] - Approximately 8,800 tons of domestic capacity will still need to be allocated for direct sales of glass overseas, benefiting companies with an established overseas customer base while those with weaker export capabilities may face operational pressures due to accumulating inventory [1] Price and Cost - The average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is expected to stabilize next year, with the average price for this year being RMB 12.59 per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% [2] - The average price for next year is projected to remain in the range of RMB 13 to 13.5 per square meter [2] Profitability - Leading companies are expected to see an increase in profit margins, with two leading firms projected to improve their overall profit margins by approximately 5 percentage points compared to this year [2] - Second-tier leading companies, such as South Glass A and Qibin Group, may see profit margins increase by 2 to 3 percentage points, while most second-tier and lower-tier companies lack an overseas customer base, making it difficult to improve profitability through exports [2]