黄金时间·每日论金：金价或延续“高位震荡+顺势冲高”的运行格局 短线留意调整风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of U.S. economic slowdown, expectations of monetary easing, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand for precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 23, spot gold prices approached $4500 per ounce, indicating a potential for further upward movement [1]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing easing policies, including a projected rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% by December 2025 and a resumption of $40 billion in short-term Treasury purchases, are expected to lower the cost of holding gold [1]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including an unemployment rate rise to 4.6% and a core CPI below expectations, supports the case for further rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The precious metals market is experiencing a "short squeeze," with gold prices up over 68% and silver up 140% year-to-date [2]. - The imbalance in long and short positions in COMEX gold futures has led to forced liquidations of short positions, amplifying price increases [2]. - Supply constraints in the physical market, particularly for platinum and silver, combined with surging industrial demand, are exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Gold prices are expected to continue a "high-level fluctuation" with a target range of $4350 to $4520 per ounce, with limited potential for deep corrections in the short term [3]. - The ongoing expectations of Fed easing, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong demand from global central banks and ETFs are likely to support gold prices [3]. - Short-term factors to monitor include profit-taking pressures, reduced market liquidity due to the holiday season, and potential technical corrections [3].